http://blog.commodityweather.com Fri, 12 Mar 2010 18:25:06 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/03/12/an-early-happy-pi-day-from-weather-trends/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research One year and several closed funds later, there was a noted difference embedded within many of the discussions at this year’s TradeTech 2010 event, held in New York. At the 2009 conference, Lehman had not yet failed, so where there was hubris ... http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/03/10/tradetech-2010-new-york/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Last week’s call for a stronger downside move materialized, and further verified the view that we have been pushing since late November of last year. May10 futures are currently below our recent downside target of 23 cents; as such, we are advising ... http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/03/02/world-sugar-update-march-2-2010/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Now that raw sugar futures have scaled back to the mid 20-cent range (a move that we have been anticipating), we have an even stronger conviction about a constructive pattern going forward.  There is still a downside target for May to drop to ... http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/19/world-sugar-update-feb-19/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Here is the discussion of the world sugar markets that was communicated earlier this week: World sugar futures continue to trade in the range that WTI has been discussing, as the market comes to grips with the fact that, while a global shortage in ... http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/18/cautious-optimism-for-raw-sugar-futures/ as expected, stocks (slightly) higher than LY and 5 yr ave   EIA Natural Gas Storage Data Release 18 Feb 2010 Total (02/12/10): 2025 Bcf Total (02/05/10): 2215 Bcf Change: -190 Bcf %diff to LY: +1.3% 5ya stocks: 1972 %diff to 5ya: +2.7% http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/18/eia-natgas-storage-report-feb-18/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) lowered their estimate for the the Australian wheat crop (2009/10 crop year) to 21.656 mmt; this is down from their previous number of 21.99 mmt. Mid-crop heat stress was followed heavy rains. http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/16/weather-forces-abare-to-lower-wheat-forecast/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Hopefully, readers of the WTI weekly sugar report were able to take advantage of our thoughts conveyed in last week’s discussion. The deficit in global stocks notwithstanding, we did think that the market was due for a mild correction, as much of ... http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/12/sugar-reflecting-fundamentals-once-again/ Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Per monday's note, spot sugar futures coming down:           http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/04/wti-world-sugar-update/ EIA Natural Gas Storage Data Total (01/29/10): 2,406 Bcf Total (01/22/10): 2,521 Bcf Change: -115 Bcf Year ago stocks: 2,207 Bcf % diff to yr ago: 9.0 % 5-year avg stocks: 2,256 % dif to 5-yr avg: 6.6 % stats here www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html   http://blog.commodityweather.com/2010/02/04/us-natgas-stocks-9-vs-ly-6-6-vs-5ya/