Weather and Commodity Trading

Brazil Sugar update

For the last week, March09 ICE sugar futures have been rangebound, between 11.3 and 11.8 cents; trading has shown a very slight increasing trend after a low in the mid 10 cent range during the last week in October. As we have been stating for several weeks, the WTI ...

Oil Hits 20-Month Lows

Oil hit 20 month lows in morning trading (NYMEX Crude $57.39 -$1.61) as demand fears persist throughout the world. On Tuesday, the World Bank revised its 2009 growth forecast to 4.5%, down from 6.4%. It also stated that these projections could be on the optimistic side as some developing countries ...

November snow cover

Last week’s heating demand was fairly light as warmer temperatures dominated the pattern for much of the country for most of the week. The pattern is shifting this week as the cold front that we discussed last week moved into the lower 48 Sunday into Monday; this front combined ...

ICE sugar futures verification

Now that the US presidential elections are over, it is a good time to take a look back and assess our track record in calling the shorter term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in world sugar futures (ICE) over the last few months. With March ...

HDD Valuation

November HDD northeast contracts (BOS, LGA, PHL) will likely trade higher into the end of Nov. Look for these contracts to stay here or become a little more 'undervalued' within the next few days - as warm weather is here for the next couple days. However towards the middle of ...

New WTI white paper

Weather Trends has released a new white paper, titled 'Anticipating the Climate Black Swan' applying the idea popularized by Nassim Taleb's excellent book (The Black Swan, 2007). Go here for the press release and to download the paper.

US Energy Demand Planner

This table shows the Weather Trends International US HDD outlook for the next 4 weeks at the CME city locations (HDD value and change from last year). Despite some warmth this week, we do expect another shot of cool air leading to higher heating demand requirements in mid November.

Corn harvest running behind

Per Monday's USDA Crop Progress report, corn harvest in the major growing states is well behind both last year and normal for early November. The current week's warmer pattern will help to make up for some lost time, but this is still a setback for potential yields. WTI has been ...

October 2008 Recap

Even though last week ended up on the week and investors were slightly consoled by another cut in rates by the US (and around the world), we clock another terrible month of returns in the market worldwide this month. Most major indices around the world experienced large moves to the ...

Halloween Trading

Oil prices and base metals headed slightly lower in what has turned out to be a volatile trading session yesterday. Commodities jumped Wednesday after the Fed cut the key rate to 1.0%. However the gains have been short lived as more evidence points to one of the deepest worldwide recessions ...