Looking at the last month, OLR anomalies indicating a couple of notable features: (1) less prcp in northeastern India, per the Weather Trends forecast, with implications for the Monsoon, and (2) more convection off of West Africa moving westward into the Central Atlantic, per the Weather Trends forecast, highlighting the potential for more tropical activity [...]

Even though the extreme heat seen over the last 1-2 weeks will subside, the pattern is still generally warm and cooling demand will remain strong.  Last Thursday’s EIA release showed natural gas stocks (Bcf) -3.1% vs. same time last year, while the weekly build (+28 Bcf) was smaller than most market analyst expectations.  [...]

Natural Gas stocks (Bcf) -3.1% vs. this time last year; weekly build (+28 Bcf) was smaller than market expectations.  Last week’s topical activity did curtail production (gas & oil) but not significantly.  Keeping an eye on tropical waves off of West Africa for next weather trigger.

also, US natgas stocks had a weak build, and -1.8% vs. last year.

for 1 Jul; 00Z run

 Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
The Canadian Met Department’s model usually has a fairly good track record regarding the early identification of tropical activity.  If other models are hinting at some type of development (particularly for a system with a potential track into the eastern Gulf), and the Canadian model does not pick [...]