Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Dryness across eastern China in recent months is likely to have an acute effect on the current winter wheat crop, and there are also anticipated effects on the coming spring wheat & corn plantings.  The above map from the Foreign Agriculture Service shows that the drought is most [...]

Here is the most important slide from my talk at the AMS annual meeting a couple of weeks ago:

 
supporting slide:

Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
 
‘Parasitic Trading’ being blamed

(photo from the FT)
 
In a letter to the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), the sharp rise in raw sugar prices to 30 year highs and related volatility is being blamed on ‘parasitic’ algo traders, according to the World Sugar Committee.  The chart below (from ino.com) [...]

 Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
The recent proliferation of articles discussing a deficit in the global sugar balance should not be news.  The market awareness of a potential supply shortage that has given another constructive surge to the raw sugar market is most recently being connected to Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which made landfall [...]

The Southern Oscillation Index value for January2011 was again strongly entrenched in positive phase (chart from the Australia Bureau of Met).

La Nina conditions to continue, with effects on prices of everything from corn to coal.  Weather Trends map below shows current snapshot of Pacific cold SST anomalies.
 
 
 
 

Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
If the recent widespread flooding across Queensland wasn’t enough, Cyclone Yasi just made landfall.  This impressive system will only add to the market uncertainty, particularly in the commodity sector.

The sugar sector has wasted no time in reacting; we are also expecting additional strength in coal.  The March ICE [...]