IRI has noted that while there is a small chance that La Nina conditions could re-emerge in the coming months, they have effectively declared the record setting 2010/11 La Nina event dead.  We agree with their outlook for generally neutral conditions for the remainder of the year. 

 
 
The chart below shows the dramatic shift in the [...]

Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
 
Following the run up to nearly 33 cents, world (#11) sugar futures have retreated and stayed in the 22-24 cent range for much of the week.  The market is expecting strong production numbers from Brazil and India, the two largest producers, and there seems to be optimism among [...]

 
We know that El Nino years tend to correlate with decreased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, usually resulting in a season with fewer named storms.  This does not mean that there won’t be any significant hurricanes during El Nino years, but the overall activity will be suppressed by cooler Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) across [...]

Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
 

While some global La Nina indicators have exhibited a more pronounced shift towards neutral phase, the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold SST anomalies are still pronounced as the above map from Weather Trends shows, and the Southern Oscillation Index is still strongly positive; the March SOI value according to [...]

 
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
 
This is the outlook was issued to clients last week (15 March):

(chart from Australia Bureau of Meteorology)
 
While the cold SST anomalies in the Pacific have backed off a bit since last month, the February Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exhibited an increase (up to 22.3) over the January 19.9 [...]

February precipitation across both northern and southeastern Australia has remained consistent, with a change in the southeast that is worth noting.  Historical analysis uncovered an interesting relationship, which is of particular importance in the milk producing regions, centered in New South Wales and Victoria. 
Through analyzing the pattern in NSW & VIC for the last 30 [...]