The recent SST anomalies are showing increasing warming around 120-130E, with a particular change of the warm surface waters north of Australia.  The image at the top left shows the monthly SST anomalies, compared to the top right which show the most recent weekly anomaly.  A significant warming can be seen in equatorial regions, coupled with a sharp reduction of the cool anomalies to the north.  This ties into the potential for El Nino development that is more rapid than many might expect.  The satellite map at the bottom of the image also shows the increased convective activity that accompanies these warmer surface waters.  As the El Nino develops and the warm surface water mass migrates eastward, the convection will move with it, leaving northern Australia dry, again.  After numerous seasons of dryness, the last year saw Queensland sugarcane growing regions receive a precipitation pattern that aided struggling growers.  If this El Nino does in fact develop as we think it might, the region’s cane growers might be faced with dryness that will nagatively impact the start of the 2009/10 crop, further exacerbating next year’s supply balance.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 at 9:38 am and is filed under Global Commodities, Global Weather, Sugar, World, weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.