May sugar summary as we approach expiration
The numbers on the ICE May09 sugar futures chart above indicate where we had made statements in our weekly updates regarding our short and long term views on the world sugar market. The WTI views are based on an integration of information relevant to global commodity markets, including short and long range weather outlooks, emerging market research and fundamental analyses across the agriculture and energy commodity spectrum.
Here is the timeline to assess our 2009 recommendations.
(1) 21 Jan: Neutral short term to constructive with May support at 12.6 to 13.1 cents.
(2) 03 Feb: Support for higher May futures (12.95-13.4); dryness in South America will start to reduce yield expectations from Brazil’s Centre-South crop.
(3) 10 Feb: Softening in short term with May expectations at 13.1-13.5.
(4) 17 Feb: Recommend buying around 12.8 as weekly view for May is 13.1-13.45.
(5) 23 Feb: Support for May in mid-13 cent range; Indian crop not off to good start.
(6) 03 Mar: Short term view is that mid 13 cent range is overpriced; recommend exiting May longs in this range and look for opportunity below 12.9 cents.
(7) 10 Mar: Stressed to look at 12.5 cents as an attractive entry for May; support for weekly range to stay between 12.75 and 13.1.
(8) 16 Mar: Lower crude supports negative moves in May sugar; 12.75 – 13.1 range.
(9) 23 Mar: Brazil pattern favorable for developing cane; short term bearishness followed by support for May between 12.9 and 13.2.
(10) 06 Apr: Signal for underpriced sugar; low 12 cent range is strong buy, and May should trade between 12.55 and 12.9.
(11) 13 Apr: The rebound occurred and any entry points in low/mid 12 cent range were likely profitable. May should stay around the 13 cent mark; July has fair value in mid 13 range.
