The rally this week in ICE sugar futures continues on Thursday. At this writing, May09 is around 12.88 cents (crude is also up slightly). There is more talk today in the market of production decreases in India, and the Indian agricultural minister has stated that current crop year (Oct/Sep) will see a 10 mmt shortfall vs. last year (16.5 mmt vs. 26+ mmt LY). Czarnikow’s most recent assessment of the global balance is calling for a 10.4 mmt deficit for 08/09.

We are comfortable with our recent price estimates, which place fair value for May09 futures in the 12.75 to 13.1 cent range, noting the additional upside potential in the short term.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 10:14 am and is filed under Agriculture, Biofuels, Global Commodities, Global Weather, Sugar, futures, weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.