Archive for March, 2009

Complexity and uncertainty in the global agricultural commodity matrix

In a time of great uncertainty, one thing is certain: 2008 will go down as a year of extremes.
On the surface, the year started off so strong in so many sectors before experiencing the virtual free-fall that left no industry untouched. As we near the end of the first quarter in 2009, the downward trend [...]

Look at crude to signal a reversal for sugar

May09 sugar futures had a strong week last week as the sweetener benefitted from the broad upward move across the commodity complex. The rally in both crude oil and grains helped support higher ICE sugar futures, and most of last week was spent in territory above the 13 cent mark. On the global [...]

Wet Queensland

There are many resons supporting sugar futures in the news this week, among them, higher crude (today above 50), Fed activity in bond buying, short crops in India, and a widening gap in the global S-D – all topics discussed in our letters in recent weeks.  Today, we add to the list, wet weather in [...]

Sugar futures still holding on above 13 cents

May09 sugar futures are appropriately priced, and short term movements will likely be linked to directional moves in crude. Most of the recent crop news from India and Brazil are priced into May and July, and technical signals are slightly bearish. Lower crude prices, currently down approximately 4.5%, will support short term negative [...]

Sugar Futures extend weekly rally

The rally this week in ICE sugar futures continues on Thursday. At this writing, May09 is around 12.88 cents (crude is also up slightly). There is more talk today in the market of production decreases in India, and the Indian agricultural minister has stated that current crop year (Oct/Sep) will see a 10 [...]

Strength in sugar futures continues Wednesday

For reasons that we have been discussing, there are more variables to lead to a short term constructive pattern for MAY, JUL and even OCT ICE sugar futures.  Additional support is also coming from corn/soybeans.  See recent posts for detailed discussions.  Current levels still viewed as a good entry.