On Monday, the March09 ICE sugar futures contract briefly crossed the 13 cent mark, closing the day at 12.97 (the session’s low was 12.67). Readers who have been following the weekly notes stressing that sub 12 cent sugar was an attractive entry point were well positioned for this recent move. While this is [...]

March09 ICE sugar futures crossed levels not seen since early November, as yesterday’s close was at 12.55; May09 finished the session at 12.81. Still early to say if this is the rally that some are calling for, but current activity may be indicative of new lows for longer range positions. Early activity on [...]

Following some milder weather in mid December, temperatures across much of Europe have been extremely cold from late December through January. London is in the midst of a stretch of several evenings with sub-zero temperatures (5 and counting), which has lead to an unusually high number of infrastructure related problems such as water pipe [...]

The March09 ICE sugar futures is now in the range that WTI has been discussing as fair value for several months. Current trading levels on the nearby contract are at the highest that we have seen since early November. Other than a few brief episodes, World sugar has been below 12 cents [...]

Ahead of the next USDA release, I ran some quick numbers and feel pretty comfortable with an estimate of 170-171 mm boxes (the Florida ‘all-orange’ number). The following reasons support this:

Weather has been better than last season. Very little frost threat in January and the outlook appears to be favorable looking into Feb.

A [...]