Now that the US presidential elections are over, it is a good time to take a look back and assess our track record in calling the shorter term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in world sugar futures (ICE) over the last few months. With March as the nearby contract, we provide a brief recap of how March09 sugar has traded, as well as our price range recommendations that were made at the time. This graphic shows that most of the short term and long term ideas that were developed at Weather Trends have been confirmed by the market. This confirmation adds to our confidence on how the world sugar fundamentals will influence market moves as we prepare for 2009. With all of the current uncertainty in both commodity and equity markets at the moment, the views provided here can help manage the short term volatility, as well as provide a proactive look at some of the factors that will move the markets in 2nd/3rd futures. As we stated in our letter last week, the WTI view is still for March09 fair value in the 12.5 to 12.9 cent range; yesterday’s close for March was 12.72.

The next WTI monthly commodity review (for clients only) will address the global supply and stocks outlook for sugar/softs, grains and energy related commodities.

( chart from INO.com.)

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