Halloween Trading

Oil prices and base metals headed slightly lower in what has turned out to be a volatile trading session yesterday. Commodities jumped Wednesday after the Fed cut the key rate to 1.0%. However the gains have been short lived as more evidence points to one of the deepest worldwide recessions in recent memory. Most economists give a formal definition of a recession when two quarters of GDP growth are negative and the first part of this equation rang true on Wednesday when it was announced that the GDP for the third quarter contracted by 0.3%. However, some have dismissed economists citing that the U.S. has been in a recession since the beginning of 2008 or even earlier.

BNP Paribas said downward pressure on oil prices from financial deleveraging, particularly selling by hedge funds, might start to subside following the collapse in open interest (total active long and short positions) for Nymex WTI. However, it is difficult to tell when hedge funds when complete this process. As of this morning, Nymex Crude is trading in the $65.00/barrel range.

Gold is trading around $735/oz., under some pressure from a recovery in the dollar in the last few days. AngloGold Ashanti, the world’s third-largest gold producer, is reviewing at least $200 million of investments and may sell assets as funding becomes more costly. “We’re tightening our belts,” said Mark Cutifani, AngloGold’s chief executive. Base metals gave back some of this week’s remarkable rebound, which has been driven largely by short covering.

In today’s currencies market, both the Euro and Sterling were losing to the dollar, shedding 1.6% and 2.2% respectively to $1.2707 and $1.608.

 

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