For the last week, March09 ICE sugar futures have been rangebound, between 11.3 and 11.8 cents; trading has shown a very slight increasing trend after a low in the mid 10 cent range during the last week in October. As we have been stating for several weeks, the WTI view is that current mid [...]

Last week’s heating demand was fairly light as warmer temperatures dominated the pattern for much of the country for most of the week. The pattern is shifting this week as the cold front that we discussed last week moved into the lower 48 Sunday into Monday; this front combined with some fairly strong wind [...]

Now that the US presidential elections are over, it is a good time to take a look back and assess our track record in calling the shorter term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in world sugar futures (ICE) over the last few months. With March as the nearby contract, we [...]

 
Weather Trends has released a new white paper, titled ‘Anticipating the Climate Black Swan’ applying the idea popularized by Nassim Taleb’s excellent book (The Black Swan, 2007).  Go here for the press release and to download the paper.
 
 

 
This table shows the Weather Trends International US HDD outlook for the next 4 weeks at the CME city locations (HDD value and change from last year).  Despite some warmth this week, we do expect another shot of cool air leading to higher heating demand requirements in mid November.

Per Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report, corn harvest in the major growing states is well behind both last year and normal for early November.  The current week’s warmer pattern will help to make up for some lost time, but this is still a setback for potential yields.  WTI has been forecasting less than optimal harvest [...]