In our weekly reports and discussions with ag traders and producers, we have been noting the dryness in Argentina’s wheat regions, and the potentially significant impact on production and yield for the 08/09 crop.  September’s NDVI (above, from USDA) highlights the stress.  Today, Argentina’s agricultural secretariat revised their wheat crop estimate down to a range of 9.5 to [...]

March09 ICE sugar futures showed some strength early in the week, moving up about a cent (11.2 to 12.2) before trading down in the mid to upper 11 cent range by late Tuesday (closing at 11.71). Technicals support a slightly lower open on Wednesday. The US dollar slid some more against the benchmark currencies, and [...]

After some cold in late September and early October had some furnaces running earlier than normal, this week will be very warm, particularly in the eastern US where temperatures will be in the upper 70s through Wednesday. By Thursday, we will start to see a shift in this unseasonably warm pattern, and the outlook for [...]

Despite the US government holiday, markets are open on Monday. USDA estimates from last Friday’s crop reports projected larger crops for both soybeans and corn, in terms of total production. The soybean estimates are for production to come in at 2.98 billion bushels, which is higher than their September estimate. The corn outlook is for [...]

The last five days have seen MAR09 ICE sugar move down about a cent from the mid 14 range to just above the mid 13 range (see chart above). Our target price range for fair value March sugar is just above 13 cents, so we feel that the current trading range is slightly overvalued. The [...]