After some cold in late September and early October had some furnaces running earlier than normal, this week will be very warm, particularly in the eastern US where temperatures will be in the upper 70s through Wednesday. By Thursday, we will start to see a shift in this unseasonably warm pattern, and the outlook for next week will move to the cool side. This transition will start to set up the pattern for the cooler November, as we officially move to the heating season, so expect increased demand in November for the central and eastern US. The AO and the NAO are both in positive phase (see below); however the short term outlook is for a shift to negative phase will drive the pattern (cooler) for the remainder of the month, into November. Crude rose, as market sentiment turned bullish following the positive news from Congress. We should stress that a couple of days in a constructive market should be viewed with caution, and it is far too early to suggest that a recovery for equities or a reversal in commodities will follow, as some analysts are suggesting.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 14th, 2008 at 8:24 am and is filed under Energy, Global Commodities, Global Weather, United States. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.